Capital Allocation
7 pieces
Why I Stopped Writing Checks and Built an Instrument
Four bets across twenty-nine years turned out to be one bet. The scarce input in venture was never capital — it was judgment. So I stopped writing checks and built the instrument.
AI's Unprecedented Acceleration: Reading BOND Capital's 2025 AI Report
Mary Meeker's BOND Capital May 2025 'Trends — Artificial Intelligence' report documents a cycle compressing several decades of typical technology-curve dynamics into eighteen months. The structural signals worth carrying forward.
From Bretton Woods to Weaponized Interdependence: A VC Playbook for the Geo-Tech Age
The post-Cold War consensus around rules-based free trade has wound down. What replaces it — and the three technology categories that sit at its critical seams.
What the US Civil Space Industrial Base Study Reveals
The Department of Commerce's joint study of the civil space industrial base — with NASA and NOAA — is a signal worth reading. The fact that the study is being conducted at all is more useful than any specific finding will be.
Data and Signal in the 2023 Reset
The 2023 venture environment is materially different from the one that closed 2021. A reading of which signals matter most in the reset — and which are giving founders and investors false readings.
Mt. Gox, FTX, and What Survives
The 2022 crypto collapse is a story of the speculative wrapper, not the infrastructure layer. The harder and more useful question is what does survive.
What Compounds in Climate
The Inflation Reduction Act, the European energy crisis, and a year of climate extremes converge into a different investment case for climate technology — one that no longer needs the environmental argument to clear capital diligence.